They Have a Need
Well, they have spoken, and clearly, there was a need for a sequel to Top Gun to the tune of nearly $160 million in the domestic box office. As Matt Belloni pointed out in his newsletter this week, that is an impressive haul but more specifically with these domestic demos:
55 percent over age 35
38 percent over 45
18 percent over 55
I saw the movie on Tuesday in IMAX, and yes, it was incredible. I haven't enjoyed a film that much for a while now. There was even applause at the end—something I haven't seen since moving to Philly. Was it perfect? No. I found the relationship between Cruise and Jennifer Connelly unconvincing. I think it may be because I now know too much about him as a person to find any relationship with a female lead convincing. My wife considers him creepy, and she liked the original, but that's a discussion for another email. Despite that; it was still a fantastic ride at the movies. Clearly, there was an audience ready for another adventure with Maverick, but I fear that the industry is still ignoring core institutional problems at their peril.
All weekend long, my social media feed was filled with exhortations that movies are back, and the Cruise has single-handedly brought back the blockbuster (My co-host Tim Thompson will have something to say about this, I'm sure.) I completely get the impulse. It's not a Marvel or Star Wars movie, and as I mentioned above, it got a group of moviegoers to get back to theaters that have long been thought of as the most COVID cautious. All good things, of course, but this is also a previous IP with a built-in fan base, which will only go so far. I can see it now; this will become Cruise's "Mission Impossible but with Fighter Jets." In other words, this is not enough to ensure a good comeback for theatrical. Yes, people came back, but it may have also reminded them of the hassle of going to the movies: the expense, the overpriced food, the uncomfortable chairs. The experience has not improved enough to regularly convince people to return to the movies. Now and then, there may be a movie they want to see, but that is not a sustainable business model. As they head into their weekends, the industry needs people to say again, "Hey, what's playing at the movies?"
This is a moment of rare opportunity. The "Streaming is Our Future" narrative is collapsing. Saint Ted is off doing puff pieces to try and resurrect his company's brand. COVID is over for most of the country despite the rise in cases, as this weekend proved. The timing is ripe for a renaissance, but I fear the industry may miss its chance. With all these hallelujahs and "movies are back, baby," it's almost as if the delusion on full display at CinemaCon mere weeks ago has now spread. The moment to radically change the experience is now, but the conversation isn't headed in that direction. Perhaps Top Gun has been resurrected as a franchise, and it is excellent that Paramount and, more specifically, Tom Cruise were so committed to theatrical, but if we are not careful, they may have no choice in a few years but to release on Paramount+ as they might be the only broad viewing option left.
Everyone Hits
Robin and I discussed this on the podcast last week, and it appears we were both right: people will find a way to watch everything. Aside from Top Gun this weekend, there were also releases of Netflix's first seven episodes of the final season of Stranger Things and Disney's first two episodes of Obi-Wan Kenobi. Judging by the numbers, consumers made time for what they wanted to see. Indeed, this proves the adage that if you make it a hit for someone, they will show up, and it appears Paramount, Disney, and Netflix did just that.
Pages from the Commonplace Book
Sticking with the Founding generation, this week, we turn to a relative unknown signer of the Declaration of Independence from Pennsylvania: John Morton. Unfortunately, John has the dubious honor of being the first of the signers to die nine months after signing the Declaration. He also had the misfortune to represent ardent Loyalist constituents, and they were not too pleased with his vote for independence. On his deathbed, he dictated a message intended for them:
"Tell them that they will live to see the hour when they shall acknowledge it to have been the most glorious service I ever rendered to my country."
While we don't have the exact reaction of his fellow countrymen after the Revolution, my guess is their descendants would agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment.
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